ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update. The bank assessed poverty using the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise made Pakistan the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP area.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together comprise another 47% of the population living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations make up roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, the region hosts about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
In addition to the $3 benchmark, Pakistan’s poverty situation worsened at the higher $4.20 daily threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of people below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional assessment attributes this decline to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, rising inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic restructuring. These factors are cited as key drivers behind the worsening poverty indicators in the country.
Poverty levels escalate following years of economic shocks
Recent household survey data released earlier in 2026 prompted a significant revision of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s estimated total of those living in extreme poverty. By September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite positive growth signs in Pakistan’s economy, poverty levels stay elevated. The latest projections estimate GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026 and 8.2% for 2027, with the latter exceeding the previous year’s estimate despite ongoing economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share also stems from a statistical reclassification that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not modify the country’s geographic or income status. Khurram Schehzad, the country’s finance minister adviser, explained that the new grouping impacted regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP calculations. As a result, the classification influences how regional poverty shares are presented.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a regional contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025. Disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade, along with ongoing conflicts, hampered economic activity in several countries. Nonetheless, oil-importing developing nations such as Pakistan proved more resilient, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.3% for that group in 2026. Rising food and energy prices continued to strain household budgets across multiple economies.